Iraq debate: the soft spots

ILLUSTRATED: There are weak spots for both sides of the Iraq debate.

Ok, there are more than two sides, but there are two main arguments being made. "Stay in and finish the job..." and "bring the troops home now...(perhaps with the caveat of "a residual force to fight al qaeda"). The first argument has a gaping logical hole. The second requires a moral acknowledgment.

I attended a town hall like forum last night on Iraq, all sides had well informed, articulate advocates. But it became clear to me that the George W. Bush position advocates have no real comeback when asked about the practical limitations of resources. Or lack thereof. This refers to funds and troop strength vis-a-vis our overall force structure. Raise the issue of raising taxes or continue borrowing from China, Saudi Arabia and others. Force people to explain the force structure. I was given the right wing talking point of the high retention rates in the military, and replied with the fact that re-enlistment bonuses have skyrocketed.
In sum: Oil revenue deal + security = political solution. We don't have the time or resources to walk the walk to see through a ten year plan.

As for the "get out now" crowd, they need to at least acknowledge that there will be a bloodbath, and perhaps a multifaceted genocide beginning next year. We are responsible for the conditions our president caused, and so we all bear a moral accountability. Have an answer that makes it clear that the American army has done what it can and the Iraqi people will have to create its own political order.

GOP's nadir, how to exploit it

ILLUSTRATED: The mantle for the economy, Iraq, and valuing families is ripe for the picking.

A lot is happening in the news within a week of this writing. Back in June, I mentioned that Bush was finished politically, now I predict serious damage is being done to the Republican Party brand now in September. On the economy, Iraq, and family values, the GOP has been discredited. Now is the time to swoop in and offer an alternative.

- "The Bush economy is growing"? There is breaking news that 4,000 jobs were lost in the August. Normally, we need 150,000 new jobs just to sustain population growth. The overwhelming majority of Americans are worse off than they were last year.
What we say: "Democrats will create portable, affordable healthcare, lifetime education, and fair trade policies."

- "The surge is working"? The Iraq report will come out in a few days with no sign of success. This means an oil revenue deal combining with securing the entire country to allow an enduring political structure. None of this is happening.
What we say: "Redeploy to Afghanistan and our own homeland, and leave behind enough troops to fight al-Queda, protect our assets, and help contain the territorial integrity of Iraq."

- "The party of family values"? The Larry Craig scandal proves that the words "family values" are just rote, empty words spoken by Republican politicians. They are human, with typical family issues. Their party's policies do not value families.
What we say: "Democrats enact policy that values families."

Response to Osama bin Laden

ILLUSTRATED: Two sentences for a Democratic presidential candidate to look "Presidential".

There is rumored to be a new video from OBL. Here's what to say:

"Mr Bin Laden, you're a fool to think you can scare the American people. If you're not caught in sixteen months, coming after you will be my top priority."

[There, in two sentences, you've reassured the safety of the American people, and totally criticized the national security policy of the Bush Administration.]

Presentation is key to campaign communication

ILLUSTRATED- A lot of a campaign's communication is based on how volunteers present themselves. Your volunteers personas needs to be monitored.

I wrote a length about this previously. I am a strong believer in training volunteers. Verbal communication is only a small part of campaigning. Most experts say that most communication is non-verbal and tone of voice. Campaigns must take care to make sure that volunteers know how to present themselves. This includes making sure everyone is even keel and is dressed appropriately.

My theory on "campaign foot soldiers" is this: 1) indigenous people using community networks is best. 2) Paratroopers from elsewhere who present themselves in a culturally appropriate way are better than nothing. 3) Paratroopers who are campaigning to express themselves and not represent the candidate are worse than nothing. I call them "campaign suicide bombers" since they turn off more people than they attract.

No more McRich

ILLUSTRATED: With the real estate meltdown, there is a harsh psychological change for many Americans. Like 9/11 for economic security.

The exurbs are supposedly where young families would form the base of a GOP majority. But from exurban suburbs to downtown condos, a lot of people are losing their homes,... if they can actually find a buyer. People cannot keep with their rising payments, and potential buyers cannot qualify for a loan.
This means that a lot of people are realizing that they are not upper-middle class. And they never were. That's a tough psychological shock, like 9/11 was for physical security.
I don't think the response of Democrats ought to be traditional populist appeals to a sense of helplessness. Instead, we should campaign on economic policies that paint a picture of a path to self actualization. I.e. portable health insurance, lowering the interest rate for educational loans, and lowering the general interest rate by lowering the deficit.

Value Families

ILLUSTRATED: One of John Kerry's best lines was that we should stop preaching family values and start enacting policies that value families.

Hopefully the Larry Craig story will help a critical mass of Americans see through empty rhetoric about "family values". That phrase is simply a catch phrase that appeals to a certain constituency that has a certain lifestyle and conception about what a household is. But conservative politicians are just people, with all typical human conditions.
Everyone wants to be in a functional household. We now need to link Democratic policies to keeping families in tact. That means children's health insurance, job re-training programs, support for child care, and of course a robust retirement and health care system for the elderly.

Democrats = good family life

Organizational basics of campaigns don't change

ILLUSTRATED: When setting up a campaign, first appoint a core group of people for organizational management, fundraising, and communication. Set up clear lines of authority functionally and geographically. Once the core is established, then you grow virally.

To all presidential and dog-catcher campaign chairs: when launching campaigns in 2008 and beyond, remember basics are basics. Start with them.

Right now social networking is all the rage, in the future there will be new technologies and techniques that I cannot conceive of. But do not lose sight of basic organizational principles. I see presidential campaigns tapping all of these new social networking websites, but without clear organizational control. What I fear is that social networking technology will facilitate dis-organization with wildcat groups being set up and (sometimes illegally) raising money.

Remember the three basic functions of a campaign are organizing the people, raising the money, and communicating the message. Whether the frame of reference is a small town, or an entire state, the person or persons who do all of these functions must be identified and deputized on day one. The world needs to know who is in charge, and what the message is. Then you network, with handshakes and mouse clicks.

Eventually, GOTV is done best by social networks. But that's for the last day, not the first day.

Not only does organization win in its own right, it reflects a professionalism and management savvy on the candidate.