Verbal ammo for discussing the Horse race

ILLUSTRATED: Why Obama wins: 1) the best GOTV operation ever, 2) Obama will appeal in the Rockies, 3) the GOP base is fractured and we are solid, and 4) we have more money and organization.


Myth 1: Obama is shaky in blue states in the Rust Belt. Remember "blue states" means Democratic in 2000 and 2004. Obama has a GOTV operation that far outclasses what Gore and Kerry had. Given the worsening economic conditions and war, I don't think we'll lose any ground. New Hampshire will be the toughest state to keep, but that has gotten more and more Democratic. Don't compare everything to the past (like the talking heads do).

Myth 2: The Mountain Time Zone is RED. Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona all have Democratic governors right now. Obama did very well in the primaries and caucuses. Even the recent Montana primary was an open primary that he did very well in. Meaning he is competitive with swing voters out West.

Myth 3: McCain has his base locked down. Ron Paul sounded the call for libertarians which Bob Barr will pick up. Also, Mike Huckabee has played into economic populism among Christian conservatives. For McCain to be in lock step with the Bush Administration on civil liberties and economic policy, he will lose a lot of support.

Myth 4: This is a fair fight. We have the financial and organizational advantage. McCain won the nomination of a collapsing party on a shoestring. He may have violated FEC rules in doing so, having once suggested he would take public financing. He is far behind Obama in growing his organization. He won't have the money to compete where we will compete either. Watch for Obama to make a play in the South and Mountain West. McCain may keep the South, but with less resources, will lose electoral votes in the West.

Survival guide for Obama organizers to integrate Clinton supporters

ILLUSTRATED: How to heal the Democratic party, and begin a new epoch of party dominance.

I was a Kerry organizer since the summer of 2003. The most difficult of the 15 months was March, 2004. That is when we blended the activists of defeated Democrats after the primary. Here are some tips.

1. First, it is the Obama campaign's responsibility for making this happen with grace and order.
2. You will face some barbed comments and frustration. Basically, for the few difficult people you will face, turn the other cheek once and forgive. Then don't give them any responsibility until they have an affirmative attitude about Obama.
3. Reach out slowly to selective Hillary people
4. Host parties in the homes of Hillary supporters
5. Speak inductively, not about Obama himself, but about the transformation in American politics that HRC's candidacy was a part of. We need to keep it going.
6. When you do talk about Obama, talk about his ability to both inspire and sustain an organization for a Democratic dynasty. This is exciting.
7. Ultimately, the majority of HRC supporters will come over based on the pride you show in your work for Obama

Obama and the realignment of 2008

ILLUSTRATED: The rare ability of Barack Obama is Inspiration + Organization

I recently spoke with a Democratic Strategist who made an interesting point about Obama. He is a rare candidate who is both a great communicator and a great organizer. I think of great communicators being Lincoln, the Roosevelts, Kennedy, Reagan, and Clinton. In my humble opinion, only Reagan overlaps with great organizers like Washington, Truman, Eisenhower, and Bush the senior.
Barack Obama has the rare ability to inspire a progressive movement, and to organize the institutions to sustain it. It will blend the academy, the media, and the grassroots with the money to maintain power.