Verbal ammo for discussing the Horse race
ILLUSTRATED: Why Obama wins: 1) the best GOTV operation ever, 2) Obama will appeal in the Rockies, 3) the GOP base is fractured and we are solid, and 4) we have more money and organization.
Myth 1: Obama is shaky in blue states in the Rust Belt. Remember "blue states" means Democratic in 2000 and 2004. Obama has a GOTV operation that far outclasses what Gore and Kerry had. Given the worsening economic conditions and war, I don't think we'll lose any ground. New Hampshire will be the toughest state to keep, but that has gotten more and more Democratic. Don't compare everything to the past (like the talking heads do).
Myth 2: The Mountain Time Zone is RED. Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona all have Democratic governors right now. Obama did very well in the primaries and caucuses. Even the recent Montana primary was an open primary that he did very well in. Meaning he is competitive with swing voters out West.
Myth 3: McCain has his base locked down. Ron Paul sounded the call for libertarians which Bob Barr will pick up. Also, Mike Huckabee has played into economic populism among Christian conservatives. For McCain to be in lock step with the Bush Administration on civil liberties and economic policy, he will lose a lot of support.
Myth 4: This is a fair fight. We have the financial and organizational advantage. McCain won the nomination of a collapsing party on a shoestring. He may have violated FEC rules in doing so, having once suggested he would take public financing. He is far behind Obama in growing his organization. He won't have the money to compete where we will compete either. Watch for Obama to make a play in the South and Mountain West. McCain may keep the South, but with less resources, will lose electoral votes in the West.
Myth 1: Obama is shaky in blue states in the Rust Belt. Remember "blue states" means Democratic in 2000 and 2004. Obama has a GOTV operation that far outclasses what Gore and Kerry had. Given the worsening economic conditions and war, I don't think we'll lose any ground. New Hampshire will be the toughest state to keep, but that has gotten more and more Democratic. Don't compare everything to the past (like the talking heads do).
Myth 2: The Mountain Time Zone is RED. Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona all have Democratic governors right now. Obama did very well in the primaries and caucuses. Even the recent Montana primary was an open primary that he did very well in. Meaning he is competitive with swing voters out West.
Myth 3: McCain has his base locked down. Ron Paul sounded the call for libertarians which Bob Barr will pick up. Also, Mike Huckabee has played into economic populism among Christian conservatives. For McCain to be in lock step with the Bush Administration on civil liberties and economic policy, he will lose a lot of support.
Myth 4: This is a fair fight. We have the financial and organizational advantage. McCain won the nomination of a collapsing party on a shoestring. He may have violated FEC rules in doing so, having once suggested he would take public financing. He is far behind Obama in growing his organization. He won't have the money to compete where we will compete either. Watch for Obama to make a play in the South and Mountain West. McCain may keep the South, but with less resources, will lose electoral votes in the West.
posted by Teka Thomas at 7:48 PM
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