Wednesday, December 12, 2007

2008 issues

ILLUSTRATED: Iraq: "responsible draw down", Economy: "fiscal responsibility, invest in people", Immigration: "fair legal process, immigration is good".

At this writing in mid-December 2007 I see Iraq and the Economy as the two key issues, with immigration being the one issue hot enough for the GOP to distract the people.

Iraq: For the previous few months, Iraq has not been in the news much. Violence has gone down but we are not any closer to an oil revenue sharing deal, thus we are no closer to a political deal. In the spring, when we run out of manpower for the surge, the violence will go back up and several civil wars will flare up again. A bloodbath in Iraq will be the backdrop of the 2008 election. Tie Iraq and the economy together by mentioning that saving war spending will help the economy here.

Economy: I bet against a contracting of the GDP in the aggregate, but clearly most Americans are worse off than they were 4 years ago. So it will feel like a recession, even if business pundits on TV tell us otherwise. We need to stress fiscal responsibility and investing in people.

Immigration: This blends trade economics, with race, with national identity, with national security, with the rule of law. It may not be all, but that's a whole lot of hot button issues. The reality is the vast majority of the American people want physical border protection, and think there are far too many illegal immigrants.
First, we need to stress legal process. The main theme of what Bush/Cheney has done wrong from foreign policy to presidential appointments is that they have eschewed process and done what they have wanted. Say Democrats stand for fair legal process.
Secondly, keep immigration positive. Immigrants bring vibrancy to the economy and culture wherever they go.

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