Iowa ground game

ILLUSTRATED: Thursday's Iowa Caucus could prove the effectiveness of modern GOTV.

An excellent NYT article examines modern GOTV efforts and techniques used to gear up for Iowa. The Obama and Clinton campaigns are taking a page from what Bush/GOP did in Ohio in the fall of 2004. Namely, using sophisticated demographic information from consumer data bases, and targeting people of a profile who will support them. Edwards is running a more traditional campaign focused on regular voters. (There is a subtext about private campaign finance since only Clinton and Obama can afford to do this)

This will be a case study in the effectiveness of modern GOTV, because all three are tied at about 29%. So if two are going to pedal to the metal to find their base, and one is not, this will be a good experiment. Thursday night look for the ENTRANCE polls which poll people walking into the caucus rooms.

Democracy is Beautiful

ILLUSTRATED: Tell voters it is their moral duty to vote. Democracy is beautiful, all must partake.

This blog is mainly about telling Democrats how to articulate our policies in plain English. I've never written about the most basic closing argument. Go vote!The percentage of people who show up is disgraceful.

I have heard many inspirational stories, that I try to tell to others. What works for me is relaying what a professor once told me. She is white but lived in the South in a precinct with a lot of African Americans. On election day, the elderly African Americans would dress up like they are going to church...it was that important to them.

Having done some poll watching, I can tell you that watching Americans line up to vote is a beautiful thing.

Almost as beautiful as those who literally fight for democracy....

Avoiding the ignorance of arrogance

ILLUSTRATED: Modern campaigns must keep up with modern techniques and technology. Beware of giving all of the power in the campaigns to people, simply because they won in the past.

Two years ago I wrote of the coming age of the political entrepreneur. These are well connected activists who are good at organizing, writing, and fundraising. They are essential to modern campaigns. In the NYT's edition on Christmas '07, there is an article on how Democratic presidential candidates are reining in the payouts to old-school media consultants. In the last two paragraphs, Joe Trippi (Dean '04, Edwards '08) writes that soon, people experienced in modern netroots organizing will be running major campaigns.

2008 campaigns still have a lot of fundraisers, consultants, and managers who came of age before 2004, when blogs and the Internet became critical. Campaigns these days ought to beware of stacking the top jobs with people simply because they have a "track record". I have found that they often have a pack mentality that is stuck in the past.

Let me be clear that there are fundamentals that are timeless. But there is a tightrope to be walked between "learning the lessons of history so as to not repeat the mistakes" and "not being the general who fights the last war".

Ideas and Values

ILLUSTRATED: Coalitions are about ideas based on shared values. Huckabee and Paul are exposing the hypocrisy in the GOP coalition.

It occurred me today that the biggest threat to the Nixon-Reagan coalition are the candidacies of Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. I say this for the following reasons:

-First, coalitions are held together by ideas. Huckabee and Paul are as genuine as politicians come, and sincerely believe in their ideas. Huckabee is a conservative populist, and that includes basic Christian tenets of serving the poor and stewardship of the environment. Paul believes in less government, which includes less investigative power. Also it would include abolishing the unitary executive theory pushed by Bush/Cheney that puts the executive branch above the other two branches.

-Second, Paul will have the money to propagate his message across the country. That will reinvigorate small government libertarians in the party. Huckabee may or may not ever have Paul's money but given his new status as a first tier candidate, can propagate his Christian value system (which is very similar to our party on taking care of people's needs and giving opportunity and dignity to all) across the country.

-With these old constituencies spoken to, they will become aroused. And in 2008 and beyond, it will be difficult for the GOP to hold them together.

Going back to Alexander Hamilton, the GOP's main focus the interests of big business. They coalesced with Christian Conservatives in the 1970s to form a majority. But now corporate welfare, abuse of power, and the widening gap in opportunity and condition in America is tearing that coalition apart.

Be heartened, that our presidential and congressional candidates are fundamentally the same on core values.

2008 issues

ILLUSTRATED: Iraq: "responsible draw down", Economy: "fiscal responsibility, invest in people", Immigration: "fair legal process, immigration is good".

At this writing in mid-December 2007 I see Iraq and the Economy as the two key issues, with immigration being the one issue hot enough for the GOP to distract the people.

Iraq: For the previous few months, Iraq has not been in the news much. Violence has gone down but we are not any closer to an oil revenue sharing deal, thus we are no closer to a political deal. In the spring, when we run out of manpower for the surge, the violence will go back up and several civil wars will flare up again. A bloodbath in Iraq will be the backdrop of the 2008 election. Tie Iraq and the economy together by mentioning that saving war spending will help the economy here.

Economy: I bet against a contracting of the GDP in the aggregate, but clearly most Americans are worse off than they were 4 years ago. So it will feel like a recession, even if business pundits on TV tell us otherwise. We need to stress fiscal responsibility and investing in people.

Immigration: This blends trade economics, with race, with national identity, with national security, with the rule of law. It may not be all, but that's a whole lot of hot button issues. The reality is the vast majority of the American people want physical border protection, and think there are far too many illegal immigrants.
First, we need to stress legal process. The main theme of what Bush/Cheney has done wrong from foreign policy to presidential appointments is that they have eschewed process and done what they have wanted. Say Democrats stand for fair legal process.
Secondly, keep immigration positive. Immigrants bring vibrancy to the economy and culture wherever they go.